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In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. It is easy to gloss over this. 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. University of New Hampshire . The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. How could 16 out of 17 bellwether counties predict a Trump win - Quora Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. Subscribe to breaking updates This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. What science tells us about the afterlife. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. What are your thoughts on this article? Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. Ron Elving . Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. If there's a place to watch in the state that could tip it toward Clinton is college towns like Ogden in Weber County, home to Weber State. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. From Florida to Texas, the 6 Key Counties That Could Decide the - Vogue So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. University of Denver, 2. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. It's happened before. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. 8. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election - NPR.org So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Thank you for supporting our journalism. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Sumter County, . Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Still, the state's worth watching. . Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. But that's no longer the case. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. 2023 BBC. All rights reserved. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". All Rights Reserved. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. 2. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Outstanding. In their . Nobody forgot about politics.". Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). 10. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? Do you know this baby? Seriously. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). But it's still indicative of widespread support. (Sorry, not sorry.) This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. We believe this was a mistake. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Go on, look them up! But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Voter Demographics (9). Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Read about our approach to external linking. Want to dive deeper? Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. Watch Hampton City. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. These counties could play an . Free and open-source. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020.